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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Singapore Economy: How does Derivatives work?


Watch CBS Videos Online

The world is becoming an interconnected place. Problems in 1 country quickly spread to other parts of the world especially so when international trade creates so much interlinked investments that allows problems to be passed onto other countries in an unfettered way. This is the scary part.

It is time the US resumes leadership in this area.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Global Economy: How does the US trillion dollar Stimulus work?



The US is pulling out all stops to stimulate lending and use "Quantitative easing" also know as printing money to increase liquidity. There is little risk of inflation with such easing as the entire economy is in a deflationary spiral.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Singapore Home Loan and Car Home: An Anomaly (Something not quite right)

Article contributed by www.PropertyBUYER.com.sg

HOUSING LOAN
Many banks have cut back on home loan lending. Even the lending Loan to valuation ratio has been reduced from 80% to 70% in some cases.

We all know that Free-Hold or 999 lease hold land appreciates over the longer term of 10 years or 20 years cycle. This coincides with the loan tenure of typically 20 to 30 years cycle. In other words, lending money to individuals for property purchases for first homes are actually very safe banking activities as the land or property is used as collateral not only keeps it's value, but appreciates over the longer time horizon.

There are some 270,000 private houses and condominiums in Singapore. Assuming 10% of households are in negative equity, that is 27,000 units.

And assuming that those 27,000 are in negative equity to the tune of 10%. Assume that their loan size is $500,000. 10% of $500,000 is $50,000 per household. Even if we assume all of these households default on their repayment, we are talking about: -

$50,000 x 27,000 units of housing = $1.35 Billion of losses for banks.

100% CAR LOANS
Since a few years ago, we have seen MAS relaxing rules on banks for Car loan lending. Banks started to lend out 100% for car loans.

Almost everyone knows that except in rare circumstances, most cars are depreciating assets.

If a car of $110,000 price has a scrap value of $10,000. In Singapore cars have a life span of 10 years. This means the depreciation is $10,000 a year. But we all know that cars have steeper depreciation in the earlier years.

So let's say: -

Year 1 - Depreciation = $15,000
Year 2 - Depreciation = $15,000
Year 3 - Depreciation = $13,000
Year 4 - Depreciation = $12,000
Year 5 - Depreciation = $10,000

By the end of each year, the car is worth: -

year 1 - Value of car = $110,000 - $15,000 = $95,000
year 2 - Value of car = $80,000
Year 3 - Value of car = $67,000
Year 4 - Value of car = $55,000
Year 5 - Value of car = $45,000

Assuming that the car's values fall linearly and assuming that the car owner pays up linearly over the course of the 10 years. I.e. $110,000/10 = $11,000 of repayment every year in principle.

Year 1 - Amount owed = $110,000 - $11,000 = $99,000
Year 2 - Amount owed = $99,000 - $11,000 = $88,000
Year 3 - Amount owed = $88,000 - $11,000 = $77,000
Year 4 - Amount owed = $77,000 - $11,000 = $66,000
Year 5 - Amount owed = $66,000 - $11,000 = $55,000

What this means is that, in the case of default (i.e. person stops paying for his installment), in Year 1, bank is owed $99k while car is worth $95k.

Negative Equity in Car loan
Year 1 - Amount owed - Value of car = $99,000 - $95,000 = $4,000
year 2 = $88,000 - $80,000 = $8,000
year 3 = $77,000 - $67,000 = $10,000
Year 4 = $66,000 - $55,000 = $11,000
Year 5 = $55,000 - $45,000 = $10,000

What this means is, the bank stands to lose $4,000 to $11,000 in each of these car loans if the loans are not recoverable from the car owner.

There were some 3,000 COEs (Certificates of entitlement per month) therefore about 30,000 cars sold each year, imagine if 50% of these cars sold were through 100% loans.

And Imagine if 20% of these people default on their loans.

That is 15,000 cars x 20% = 3,000 car loans in trouble. Let's assume the average car loan size $50,000, that is $150,000,000 (of 150million of problem for the banks). Since 100% car loan financing has been around for roughly 3 years. A rough estimate of that would be $0.5 Billion of problems which will hit the bank's bottom line.

WHY HOME LOAN is 90% Maximum (Most banks lend only 80% now) and Car Loan is 100%


Car loans is a small magnitude problem of $0.5 billion of potential losses versus that of housing loan of $1.35 billion of potential losses. Both are easily absorbed by the banks which are operationally profitable.

However, we do feel that Car loans is another problem that will blow up should the economy head further south.

It is a small magnitude problem comparatively with car loans no doubt, but still I do not see the logic of such risk taking behaviour by the banks by giving 100% car loans.

If banks are going to lend 100% for cars in which their collateral is suspect, why not lend 90%, 95% or 100% for Houses?

Nevermind short term house price volatility, because on a longer term, property value tends to go up. Banks will tend to have better Collateral that backs the money they lent out.

Now you see where this logic goes?

Banks charter is to make money.

Banks executives are compensated on profitability of banks, not on risk management.
(No one will pad the CEO on the shoulder for having the safest rating, but making just a bit of money)

Banks, like all organizations are run by people. If there are no rules, human behaviour dictates that banks may take excessive risks just like any organizations would, when they are allowed to do so in order to achieve a reward for meeting objectives or avoid NOT meeting objectives and getting fired or demoted.

This calls for a back-to-basic ground rule and a return to some kind of a keynesian economics whereby some regulatory control are essential.

Milton Friedman's Free Market only works within a certain range, at the extreme end of tight credit squeeze or excessive credit, Free market mechanism breaks down and industries are permanently damaged and do not bounce back in years leading to massive unemployment.

They can be reached at: -
http://www.propertybuyer.com.sg/contactus.php

Monday, March 16, 2009

Singapore Economy: Martin Soong Interviews PM Lee Hsien Loong

Singapore Economy: Martin Soong of CNBC interviews PM Lee Hsien Loong on his views on the Economy

Watch Video
http://www.propertybuyer.com.sg/viewnews.php?article=85

BIG Stimulus packages included tax cuts and things such as Jobs credit.

First, we think Tax cuts are not really good, because it depletes Tax revenues. Only profitable companies pay taxes, as a result it is tantamount to giving away money to companies that do not yet need it. The benefit is not immediate and of direct benefit to the economy.

Second, we think that the Jobs credit scheme in which it gives a subsidy to the companies with Local and PR employees.
http://www.iras.gov.sg/irashome/jobscredit.aspx
However when faced with a demand slump, the choice of firing an employee or using Jobs credit is clear. The company will fire the employee as jobs credit only probably delay the retrenchments by a while at best. While the jobs credit scheme gives money to companies that are profitable.

MOST WORRYING

Heng Chee Howe said, Jobs credit scheme created employment as Sheng Siong Supermarket expanded 1 more outlet and employed more staff. He seems to imply that Jobs Credit creates employment.

This is the MOST worrying in our opinion. It simply shows that he does not understand the underlying economic issues!!! Job credit does not create employment as employers will go ahead to expand if they think there is demand. If there is no demand, that won't stop them for retrenching workers unless they see the demand fall off as temporary.

We would have bought his argument if he argued that Jobs Credit will give strong companies cash for them to tide over the coming recessions and uncertainty while there are other plans and schemes for helping those companies in trouble.

The fact that he didn't understand that worries us to bits as these are going to be the people that lead us out of recession. Oh god help us.

What have these MPs been up to? Can they even spell the word "Economy"?

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Home Loan: For MacKenzie 88

Pictures Courtesy of www.PropertyBUYER.com.sg








Singapore Home Loan: Property --> MacKenzie 88

www.InvestinSingapore.blogspot.com do not endorse or object property investments. Exercise your own judgement and do your own research and be comfortable in your own finances.

http://www.PropertyBUYER.com.sg

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Singapore Home Loan: Indonesia Interest Rates

Singapore Home Loan and Refinance



Indonesia has further dropped interest rates to stimulate their domestic economy.

Singapore Home Loan: Global Finance world's 50 Safest Banks? Oh really?

Article contributed by www.PropertyBUYER.com.sg

http://www.propertybuyer.com.sg/contactus.php

READ ARTICLE

GLOBAL FINANCE WORLD's 50 SAFEST BANKS, REALLY???

1. KfW
(Germany)
2. Caisse des Depots et Consignations (CDC)
(France)
3. Bank Nederlands Gemeenten (BNG)
(Netherlands)
4. Landwirtschaftliche Rentenbank
(Germany)
5. Rabobank
(Netherlands)
6. Landeskreditbank Baden-Wuerttemberg-
Foerderbank
(Germany)
7. NRW. Bank
(Germany)
8. BNP Paribas
(France)
9. Banco Santander
(Spain)
10. Royal Bank of Canada
(Canada)
11. National Australia Bank
(Australia)
12. Commonwealth Bank of Australia
(Australia)
13. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA)
(Spain)
14. Toronto-Dominion Bank
(Canada)
15. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group
(Australia)
16. Westpac Banking Corporation
(Australia)
17. Banco Espanol de Credito S.A. (Banesto)
(Spain)
18. ASB Bank Limited
(New Zealand)
19. HSBC
(United Kingdom)
20. Credit Agricole
(France)
21. Wells Fargo
(United States)
22. Nordea Bank
(Sweden)
23. Scotiabank
(Canada)
24. La Caixa
(Spain)
25. Svenska Handelsbanken
(Sweden)
26. US Bancorp
(United States)
27. Banco Popular Espanol
(Spain)
28. DBS Bank
(Singapore)
29. Pohjola Bank
(Finland)
30. Deutsche Bank
(Germany)
31. Société Générale
(France)
32. Intesa Sanpaolo
(Italy)
33. Bank of Montreal
(Canada)
34. DnB NOR Bank
(Norway)
35. The Bank of New York Mellon
(United States)
36. Caixa Geral de Depositos
(Portugal)
37. United Overseas Bank
(Singapore)
38. OCBC
(Singapore)
39. Axa Bank Europe
(Belgium)
40. Credit Suisse Group
(Switzerland)
41. Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg
(Germany)
42. Nationwide Building Society
(United Kingdom)
43. CIBC
(Canada)
44. National Bank Of Kuwait
(Kuwait)
45. Barclays
(United Kingdom)
46. UBS
(Switzerland)
47. JPMorgan Chase
(United States)
48. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
(Japan)
49. Banque Federative du Credit Mutuel (BFCM)
(France)
50. Credit Industriel et Commercial (CIC)
(France)
Global Finance magazine February 25, 2009

OH REALLY?

Here are the list of the world's 50 Safest banks. However, we would take it

with a pinch of salt as many of the same rating agencies did not spot the

problem with sub-prime mortgages and Collaterized Debt Obligations

(CDO).

OUR DOUBTS

We have doubts as to how much ability the rating agencies have with

regards to estimating off balance sheet risks.


We also have doubts as to how much ability the rating agencies has, to assess

the exposure of each one of the complicated derivatives that each bank

holds and it's liabilities and valuation, as the trading volume is so thin,

derivatives are mostly mark to model. But in times of credit crisis, the

derivatives can be useless and worthless if it is mark-to-market. That could

mean that banks who dabble in derivatives are technically insolvent if they

are Marked-to-market.


CONSOLATION PRIZE

The only consolation we have is, the world's leaders are sitting up and

nobody wants another bank to fail. Many banks who take excessive risks,

will be nationalized, the shareholders will be punished for their faith in the

banks.


CLAW BACK THE BONUSES OF GREEDY BANKERS

Previous CEOs of banks will get away with all the big fat bonuses for taking

the excessive risks and bring the banks to their knees for their greed.


We strongly feel that banks who are currently in trouble, there is a record to

trace back to the time when they first take excessive risks. Executives who

received big fat bonuses and share option plans, should be liable to repay

most of their bonuses. They should not be let off easily.

We quote a section from NYT
"

Arthur Levitt, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange

Commission, charges that “the credit-rating agencies suffer from a conflict of

interest — perceived and apparent — that may have distorted their

judgment, especially when it came to complex structured financial products.”

Frank Partnoy, a professor at the University of San Diego School of Law

who has written extensively about the credit-rating industry, says that the

conflict is a serious problem. Thanks to the industry’s close relationship with

the banks whose securities it rates, Partnoy says, the agencies have

behaved less like gatekeepers than gate openers. Last year, Moody’s had to

downgrade more than 5,000 mortgage securities — a tacit acknowledgment

that the mortgage bubble was abetted by its overly generous ratings.

Mortgage securities rated by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch have suffered a

similar wave of downgrades."


We are independent mortgage consultants for home loans in Singapore.


Property Agents tell you that it is a Valuable Buy

Sometimes some property agents tell the buyers that a property is worth it

and they have good bankers that can get a bank approved, do you really

think that it is really worth it?



Sometimes it's true, other times, it simply means, "Quickly buy so that I can

get my commission".


Property Agents specialized in Properties, we specialized in Home Loans.


At www.PropertyBUYER.com.sg, we don't rush you and we have no conflict

of interests with buying or selling properties. We will handle all the

paperwork for you and compare the various packages. Most important of all,

we never emphasize cheap rates or cheap loans. We first evaluate your

personal and family financial situation and then evaluate the risk versus

rewards of each possible choice.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Singapore Double Bay Residences Simei - Get Loan approved first

Singapore Double Bay Residences - Get your Pre-approved Home Loan before you pay your 1% option

Article contributed by: www.PropertyBUYER.com.sg

Call Them
Tel: 6100 - 0608 sms: 9782 - 8606

Email: loans@propertyBUYER.com.sg
http://www.propertybuyer.com.sg/contactus.php

This week, there is yet another condo launch. This time in Double Bay Residences in Simei

The credit market is very tight, while the bankers are keen to acquire new

home loan businesses, the credit departments have been rejecting loans.

From our panel of bankers, they told us on average, 7 out of 10 loans now

are rejected due to various reasons.


WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR YOU?

Many potential home owners who has Paid 1% Option to purchase have

their payment forfeited due to not obtaining a loan.


Imagine if the home is $800,000, 1% = 8,000. Potential Home owners Lose $8,000 dollars!!!

If you go with your wife to buy a diamond ring (1 carat) or go with your

husband to buy a premium watch, that is about the price. Why give away

easily $8,000 dollars just because you cannot get the loan approved?


Call us, we are the one-stop shop for all your home loans requirements. We can

help you make sure you get the in-principle approval prior to buying and

paying the 1% option.


Property Agents and your 1% Option to Purchase

Property agents get their commission regardless after you paid the 1% option to purchase, no matter you complete the deal or

not.

so either way, the property agents win.


We Know you are in a hurry to buy, call us now, we will respond within 1

working day and process the loans to multiple banks at once.


DETAILS OF DOUBLE BAY

* Extensive landscape & water area occupying 220,000sf of land area.
* Extraordinary features : One-tree island, elevated jacuzzi,
* 5-storey waterfall and lagoon pool with another 50m lap pool.
* Enormous Clubhouse with library, piano room and band room, etc.

DOUBLE BAY RESIDENCES: Key Features:

* Inspired by Nature, Created for Luxury.
* Close proximity to Simei MRT / Amenities.
* Extensive landscape & water area.
* Extraordinary features.
* Choice of 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 bedrooms.

MAKE SURE YOU GET AN IN-PRINCIPLE APPROVAL



The below are the current Home Loan promotion rates (There are many more)

CURRENT Promotion LOAN PACKAGES

Fixed Rates from 1.6% (1st year)

Sibor Rates from ~ Sibor + 0.8%



Tel: 6100 - 0608 sms: 9782 - 8606

Email: loans@propertyBUYER.com.sg

Loans packages change all the time, call us to get the latest updates.

Contact us

http://www.propertybuyer.com.sg/contactus.php

Read More articles

http://www.propertyBUYER.com.sg/articlesnews.php

Understand Property Investing and Sub-prime

http://astore.amazon.com/httpwwwpro0ad-20?%5Fencoding=UTF8&node=55

Refinance and Mortgages DIY steps

http://www.squidoo.com/Singapore-homeloan

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Global Economy: Money as Debt Part 1





This is an excellent video explaining how Money came about.

Money is initially used as a Token in exchange of actual goods and services to be delivered either immediately or in the near future. Money is also used as a "Promise" to deliver something.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Global Economy: Fiscal Stimulus no longer works the same way



As the world is increasingly connected through trade, there are many jobs that depended on trade. For example, if you build a house today, you would need to buy wood from Brazi, iron from China and Europe (which got it's sources from India and australia), and paint from US, plaster from US (whose chemical is produced in South America), roofing and tiles from Africa and aircon from China, labour from US and south America, etc.

So fiscal stimulus in ONE country, does not necessarily flow all towards stimulating that one country's economy. As there are a lot of leakages.

Therefore the whole world's leaders should come together and get their act together.

Free market is best when operating within an operating range, once you allow it to swing outside the "boundary", the market does not heal by itself. We are of the opinion that Keynesian economy where the world and each of the governments set some regulatory oversights while allowing businesses and banks to run on it's own. Banks being the bedrock of any economy, there should not be any incentive for these banks to take excessive risks.

For the more risk taking ones, they should be funded by investor's money.