Is it usually good idea to stretch a home loan as long as possible?

20 years Interbank Interest rate chart (1988 - 2008) - Adapted from MAS, by Paul Ho Kang Sang, www.propertybuyer.com.sg (info@propertybuyer.com.sg)

Recently i was also offered a 3-month sibor package where the monthly installments are fixed, but the principal paid varies with the interest rate.

I think it sounds like a good package as there is some certainty in the amt of monthly installments paid, but any potential pitfalls from this? And the equity accumulation is quite slow due to the length of loan.

Dear Home Buyer/Owner,

To answer your first question. It is important to understand whether you treat the property as a single home, an investment property or simply a property in which you can use as a collateral for your business.

Different people may react differently as a property can be an emotional issue/decision.

AFFORDABILITY
For some it is an affordability issue, therefore stretching the home loan will allow you to stretch your budget to buy the home of your dreams.

COST / FINANCIAL CONCERNS

Stretching the home loan incurs higher total interest cost. However some investors have been known to stretch the home loan as long as possible to maximize their return on invested capital (If this area is of interest to you, I can elaborate more). Longer term loans tend to be more costly because all loans are structured in such a way that mostly interests are paid during the earlier years. So you will see that your outstanding loan amount seems to be standing still.

On the other hand, some people may opt instead of 30 years, to take a loan of 20 years and at the end of every 2 years, they take another 20 years loan, such that the total repayment may still be 30 years, but they end up paying lesser interest. But it is rather troublesome and few people are inclined to do it.

3-Months Sibor with Fixed repayment structured. In this case, the total interests are variable and re-priced every 3 months, higher Sibor means you pay more interests and less principle. But you have some peace of mind such that you don't have to worry about how much to pay, though you are deferring the cost till later to smooth over short term financial flexibility. Over a 20 year period, interbank rates (Sibor) Singapore dollar Sibor has approached reached about 9% in around 1990. If you are paying Sibor + 0.9%, that would mean you are paying almost 10% interests. Fed overnight rates has gone as high as 20% during the recent financial crisis in which banks stop lending to each other or tightened credit drastically. So markets such as the Libor (London), Sibor (Singapore) are technically not immune to fluctuations in the market and liquidity crunch. And as a rule of thumb, a 3-months Sibor fluctuates more than a 6-months Sibor. While the 1-month Sibor is more volatile than the 3-month Sibor

There are quite a few fine prints which you need to note, it could be a Legal fee clawback or lock-in period penalty. Or other forms of administration fees.

If the loan has no lock-in period, then you are largely open to interest rates shocks (if any). Though Singapore market is generally flushed with liquidity and hence low GDP (economic growth) tends have also have low interest rates, but that cannot be taken for granted. We have seen first hand in the US, whose markets have much more depth and yet the funds dried up when banks tightened credit, leading to sky high interest rates. In fact, the Federal Reserve (FED) has to intervene to pump money into the market to reduce the interest rates as seen in the Sub-prime fiasco.

Where is Interest headed?
There is likelihood that interest rates may stay low (same as 2002 to 2005), but this time, there is some marked differences, the M1 money supply is much higher in Singapore. In fact the money supply has grown much faster than the economy in Singapore since around Dec 2006. From 2003, to 2008, money supply M1 doubled. Surely this money will absorbed into the economy over time if they are not being brought outside of the country, hence this is one of the many possible reasons that the Singapore market is rather resilient.

There is also some risks that US bail-out of private enterprises and banks to the tune of almost 1 trillion (1000 Billion USD), plus US annual trade deficit of over 500 Billion (http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/ustrade.html), the USA cannot afford it.

Even China with the largest reserves on earth to the tune of US$1+ trillion cannot afford to bail USA out (considering that much of this research is already in US government bonds and other financial instruments). Collectively USA corporations are very rich, but there is no way the USA government can make them come out with any money.

There is a real risk that USA might expand money supply (aka print more money), there may be elevated inflation risks and therefore interest rate hikes possibilities. Because money supply takes time to filter down, there is usually a time lag effect. Right now, it's anybody's guess. But within 6 months to 1 year my personal opinion is that it will stay at current levels, perhaps with a little room for slight drop.

The reason why USA is important is because the US market accounts for ~14 Trillion USD in GDP, or about 25% of the world's total output. THe link on GDP, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

U.S. bets that the FED will lower rates

U.S. sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. Singapore is right smack in the middle of that sneeze as Trade (Import/Export) makes up a large percentage of Singapore's Economy. Weakness in the USA directly impact the economic outlook of Singapore.


Source: IMF, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/RES012908A.htm

"In Western Europe, signs of a future slowdown in credit growth are just now emerging and there is some potential for worsening credit quality as lending has been very robust in some countries and several countries face housing markets considered overvalued, the IMF warned.
Lending in some segments of the corporate sector also expanded rapidly in the first half of 2007 with the rise in leverage buyouts. Weaker quality corporates have already seen a substantial rise in the cost of credit although yields investment grade debt have remained relatively stable. Additionally, a slowing economy will likely exacerbate the tighter credit environment further as unemployment picks up and job growth slows.
Emerging markets have been resilient so far, but face challenges ahead. Emerging market equities have outperformed mature equity markets, but prices in some markets have declined steeply since the start of the year on expectations that the U.S. economy may slow more rapidly. "Signs of spillover are most evident in the sharp fall in private emerging market bond issuance, particularly in some emerging European economies whose banks have relied heavily on external financing to support rapid domestic credit growth," the Financial Market Update stated. Generally, flows to emerging markets have remained positive up to now."

Most banks in Singapore charge a Step-by interest rates in which you pay higher interest rates at the later years. In a refinance, the other bank takes over the outstanding loan balance from the previous bank.

However, banks are tightening credit the world over.

If you are expecting some changes in personal circumstances, you may not qualify to refinance your home to get better offers and end up paying elevated rates if the following occurs: -

YOU LOSE EMPLOYMENT
YOU SALARY IS REDUCED
YOUR PROPERTY VALUE DROPS
CREDIT TIGHTENING in general

It may be advisable to get a free mortgage health check to determine your risk level.

REFERENCE:
CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose sharply on Monday to reflect higher prospects for a rate cut at or before Tuesday's Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Dealers responded to a fresh crisis in financial markets after investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy over the weekend, and to sharply lower calls for the U.S. stock market.

The Federal Open Market Committee holds hold a regularly scheduled meeting on Tuesday.

Implied prospects for the Fed to lower the benchmark fed funds rate to 1.75 percent traded as high as 92 percent and have now subsided to 72 percent. On Friday, prospects for a September rate cut were a slim 12 percent.

A single, quarter-point rate cut is fully priced by the December FOMC meeting.

"It looks like the market is looking at just a 'one and done' scenario," said Rudy Narvas, analyst at 4CAST Ltd in New York.

The Fed late on Sunday announced several measures aimed at mitigating strains in financial markets.

Those moves included enlarging the range of available collateral for the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility.

"It is only prudent to consider all available tools at the Fed's immediate disposal ... The option of adjusting the funds rate per se is probably not at the top of the priority list," said Thomas Lam, senior Treasury economist at United Overseas Bank Group in Singapore.

(Reporting by Ros Krasny; Editing by James Dalgleish)

BUYING A PROPERTY IN GEYLANG

"Success is a thought process"

Recently in 2007, a friend of mine bought a property in Geylang. The property is in decent condition, it's Freehold and it is about 1000 square feet. With all the promises of KALLANG Expansion and being near to the city, etc. It seemed too good to be true at S$400,000. She was planning to lease it out for S$1500/- per month.

So here is the calculation: -

Rental revenue --- S$1500 x 12 months = S$18,000
Downpayment 20% --- S$80,000
Cost of Financing S$320,000 @ 2.5% --- S$8,000
So the Return of Investment --- (18,000 - 8,000) / 80,000 = 12.5%

So 12.5% gains is quite OKAY right?

So she went to the bank and tried to borrow money, the banks told her, sorry you have to pay 30% to 35% downpayment.

NOW, new calculation: -

Rental revenue --- S$1500 x 12 months = S$18,000

Down payment 30% of 400k --- S$120,000

Cost of Financing S$320,000 @ 2.5% = S$8,000

So the Return of Investment = (18,000 - 8,000) / 120,000 = 8.3%

Where are you going to get that extra S$40,000 all of a sudden.

People can avoid these pains if they get a PRE-APPROVED LOAN. Just provide the unit number, development name, the banks can usually reply to you in 1-2 days to give you a YES/NO answer. Do bear in mind that some banks may say NO and you have to go check with some other banks and wait some more days. So it is a tedious process. A Independent mortgage consultant such as

http://www.propertybuyer.com.sg
can quickly help you get a loan pre-approval (and subsequently get you the best fit loan). So you can put your heart at ease to buy the investment property/home of your dreams.

This is just a simple calculation which does not YET include the Rental property tax of 10% p/a. Conservancy charges, maintenance and depreciation of property as most tenants will want you to re-furbish it, and it can cost $$$. Don't forget stamp duty, lawyer's fees, fire insurance, surveying cost, etc.

DON'T RISK IT, get pre-approved loans first before signing the option to purchase.

Valuing A Property - A layman's approach

"Success in a thought process."

What explains the price differential between 2 adjacent properties? Often you will see 2 adjacent properties sometimes a big enough price gap to warrant a big WHY.


Say for example, Condo 1 is asking an average price of S$900 psf and Condo 2 is asking a S$1200 psf.

What could be the reason???

Here are some possible explanations: -

SIZE
1. Condo 1 offers bigger units and Condo 2 offers smaller units. Towards the pricier end of properties, affordability is an issue. For example: -
Condo1 unit sizes may be in the average of 1500 square feet (10.76 sq feet = 1 sq meter). That means that an average unit would cost around S$1.35m.
Condo2 unit sizes may be around 700 to 800 square feet. That means an average unit would cost S$960k.

AGE
2. If size is not an dissimilar, Condo 1 may be older than Condo 2. Newer units generally command a premium as their design tends to be more up to date with current trends. Over time, property value tends to become higher, therefore newer properties tend to have better finishing, technologies (intercom systems), lighting, marble floors, feature walls, large lobbies, Bigger and faster lifts, air-con lobbies, nicely manicured gardens, etc. You name it, they have it. You are paying for the luxurious lifestyle. Good marbles and feature walls can cost upwards of 30 to 100 dollars (per sq feet).

LOCATION
3. Even if a property is across 1 road, the feel and surrounding attributes may be totally different. In feng shui, the road cuts across the "chi" 气 of the area. That may also explain the price differences. An example of that is Garden Vista a 99 years development (by Far East) in Dunearn Road, the going rates in 2006 were $850 to $900 psf and in 2007 and 2008, Far East was asking $1350 psf onwards. But across the road/highway is Sherwood towers, it is going for $400-$700 psf tops (and it is either Free Hold or 999 years). Location effect, in this case, garden vista is "Bukit Timah" while Sherwood towers is "Beauty world" branded, but of course more factors are at play.

LAND ATTRIBUTES
4. Two developments side by side may have similar finishing, however one may have a stream or is hilly and the other is flat. If developed and planned nicely, the rolling and hilly terrain may enhance the feeling of space and conveys a sense of well-being. As a result, people may like it more and are happy to part with more of their hard-earned money.

DESIGN ATTRIBUTES
5. Not all developments are the same. Different design appeal to different people. As Singapore is generally land scarce, properties are becoming expensive. Older designs used to have balconies. As Singaporeans become more and more utilitarian, the balconies disappeared to become part of the living space. Hence those without Balconies are more highly valued. Of late, as more and more developments are built without Balconies, developments with Balconies are making a come-back due to demand from certain segment of the home buyers who cherished the balconies, they are priced at a premium.

6. Some designs are awkward, they deliberately squeeze out 4 rooms when it should only comfortably have only 3 rooms. There are several twists and turns, corridors are long and space is "wasted". This is because you cannot really put anything along the corridor. Therefore the place feels smaller than it actually is. Though this kind of design may find some fans, it is generally not well liked by the Space minded and bargain hunting Singaporean home buyer.

FENG SHUI
7. Feng Shui, an age old art of harmonious living. More and more people are subscribing to this school of thought. And Feng Shui plays a big part in the valuation of a property. Even if you do not believe in it, many others do. It will eventually affect the price of your property either positively or negatively.

CONNECTIVITY
8. Properties near to major roads, bus stations and train stations are generally valued more. There are about 750,000 cars in a population of 4.6m. About 1 in 6 people own a car. But other family members still need to go to work, go to school, go to buy stuff and run errants, so connectivity is still very important. Despite Singapore's small size and famed public transport system, some private residential areas are a bit off the beaten track. If they are near to public transportation nodes, they are generally of the 99 year lease hold type.

VICINITY
9. Most good properties have good connectivity, but also great vicinity. The locality is near the Sea, near a nice lake, the hills, the forest or near heavily forested areas with lots of shade and foliage. Bukit Timah is one such place, East Coast park, Katong, Siglap, Yio Chu Kang are other such areas.

SCHOOLS
10. In Singapore, most children of school going age (6 to 7 years old) will have to go to Primary school. Being the usual KIASU (a hokkien word to describe, "Afraid to lose out") Singaporean parents, most parents will try to get their children to the best Primary Schools. And in Singapore, priority is given to families living within 1 km of the primary school (subject to the family having stayed there 2 years prior to the registration exercise). With good Primary schools within 1 km, most properties within 1km of the school is highly sought after.

AMENITIES
11. Singaporeans hate to walk. For an average foreigner, it would seem surprising that Singaporeans generally do not have the same sense of distance compared to a foreigner. So there is a premium to be near to the super markets, wet markets, shops and shopping centers.

LAND TITLE
12. In Singapore, most people prefer Free Hold land followed by 999 years lease hold and the least liked is 99 years. For some people from Hong Kong or China for instance, they do not seem to understand what is the big deal about 99 years and Free Hold, because no bodies lives that long. But I tell you, in Singapore, most people prefer Free Hold and that is a fact. If they did not buy free hold properties, it is usually a matter of budget constraint.

13. There is also a difference between Free Hold Strata titled land and Free Hold land with individual title deeds. Though the difference is not always reflected in the price of a property. Free Hold Land has more intrinsic value generally as it cannot be over-written by a majority vote. Strata titled land with properties on it, means that each property owner owns a "share" of the land that their property sits on. And older properties over 20 years old have Strata title laws that governs it, as long as 80% or more vote to demolish or sell the property, even the dissenting 20% of property owner will have to agree. In other words, you have no control over your home, even if you do NOT want to sell it, you may be force to sell it if the majority opts to sell or re-develop it.

FACILITIES AND SIZE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
14. A development needs to be of a certain size in land area in order to economically provide all the facilities. A full facility condominium (Condo) will have facilities such as: -
Swimming pool
Jacuzi pool
Gymnasium
Sauna room
tennis court
exercise bay
children playground
function room
Barbeque pits
Squash court (most condos do not provide this now)

The facilities differential will be create a price differential in 2 different developments.


LAND VALUE VERSUS PROPERTY VALUE
15. Property and buildings depreciate. Fittings degenerate, paints peel. The once sought after property is no longer deemed HOT. However, in land scarce Singapore with an expansive immigration policy, more population and lesser and lesser land is a recipe for higher land prices. Land appreciate, buildings depreciate.

16. Singapore is a country where the government likes to micro manage. Some call it good governance, others call it, "they plug every loop hole". So developers cannot buy large tracks of land and keep it till it appreciate. This is because the Government levies development charge and penalties on delay of building the "proposed" building and/or amenities. So that is out of the question.

However, there are many good gems out there that are DIRTY and OLD and FORGOTTEN. Many old buildings that sit on rather good land asking very reasonable prices.

Why is there such a price differential given that those are gems???

This is because buying and staying in a property is an emotional process. Many gems are over-looked because they are
simply "Dirty and NOT polished". It's definitely a different decision altogether. In this case, this property may be an
investment gem, but not a lifestyle gem, unless you can do some modifications work to it.


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