by SUSAN TEO
While we are familiar with the anti-speculative measures Singapore has rolled out, we may not be as knowledgeable about those taken by other countries. This article looks into what some other countries are doing to stabilise their real estate market.
Dubai, UAE (United Arab Emirates)
Since 2011, the residential property market in UAE showed signs of picking up after a sluggish spell between 2008 to 2010.
This prompted the Central Bank to issue a circular to limit the loan quantum for foreigners to 50% of the valuation for the first property purchase, and 40% for subsequent purchases. For citizens, the limits are pegged at 70% and 60%.
But the circular ignited fierce protests by commercial banks, causing the Central Bank to back down.
However, the Central Bank held onto intentions to introduce new mortgage regulations in the later half of 2013.
Malaysia
Despite Malaysia's liberal foreign homeowners-ship policy, it has a floor price of RM250,00 imposed on residential properties bought by foreigners. In 2010, in a bid to dampen escalating real estate prices, the Federal Government increased the minimum price to RM500,00.
However, State and Federal policies may differ.
In July 2012, the Penang state government raised the bar to RM1 million for apartments, RM2 million for landed properties on the island, and RM1 million for landed properties in Seberang Perai. Further, buyers under the Malaysia My Second Home scheme have a purchase cap of 2 units, with their minimum increased from RM250,000 to RM500,000.
Johor maybe following this trend. News has it that is contemplating upping the threshold to RM1 million as well, with changes to be announced later this year.
Another measure used to curb the flipping of properties is the RPGT (Real Property Gains Tax).
The country introduced RPGT in 1977 for Malaysians and companies, and in 1980 for foreigners.
RPGT is charged on the gains from the sale of properties that are sold within 7 years after purchase, with rates varying between 5% to as high 40%.
The Government granted a respite from RPGT between 1 April 2007 to 31 December 2009.
After which, it was revised to 5% for sale within 5 years. From 2012, it was again changed to 10% for disposal within 2 years, and 5% for disposal between 2 and 5 years.
This year sees a further upward revision to 15% and 10% for a 2-year and 3- to 5-year holding period, respectively.
Hong Kong, China
To avert a property price bubble in the country's red-hot property market, since October 2009, the HK Monetary Authority has taken steps to tighten property mortgage lending across all types of properties.
The loan tenure is capped at 30 years for all new mortgages of any property type.
The loan-to-value (LTV) ratio cap varies from 40% to 70% for residential properties; depending on whether the properties are for owner-occupation or other uses, the value of the home, and if the borrower's income is mainly derived in HK or outside.
The other property types of commercial and industrial have their LTV ratio scaled down to 50% for no-outstanding-mortgage applicants whose income are mainly derived in HK, and 40% for those outside HK.
For borrowers whose income is mainly derived outside HK, and have an outstanding mortgage, their LTV ratio is 10% lower across all property types as compared to those without an outstanding mortgage.
The debt servicing ratio (DSR) cap is set at 50% (40%) for borrowers without (with) outstanding mortgage.
For the full details of these measures, please refer to HK Monetary Authority, “Frequently Asked Questions: J. Loans and Mortgages”.
In a further attempt to cool down the market, the Government imposed a 15% Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD) on residential property bought from 27 October 2012 by non-Hong Kong permanent residents (i.e. foreigners and Mainland citizens) and companies, whether incorporated in HK or not.
Another measure to affect residential property bought from 27 October 2012 is the Special Stamp Duty (SSD). Introduced in November 2010, the buyer and seller of a property are jointly liable for it, and it ranges from 5% to 15% if the holding period is less than 2 years.
However, in this latest round of measure, SSD has been raised to vary between 10% and 20%, and the liable holding period has been extended to 3 years.
For further readings on BSD and SSD, visit HK Inland Revenue Department, “FAQ: Buyer's Stamp Duty (BSD)” and “FAQ: Special Stamp Duty (SSD)”.
The Government also pledged to increase housing supply and expedite sales of housings to meet increasing demand.
BSD aside, another policy targeting foreigners is the "Hong Kong land for Hong Kong people", under this policy the government prohibits foreigners from buying residential properties on 2 sites.
Mainland China
One of the world's largest economy, since 2010, this vast country has been implementing additional measures which run the gamut from financing rules, taxation to restriction on the number of properties that a household can own.
The measures specifically taken by each province and city may vary too. The below covers some of the more prominent measures, but is by no means an exhaustive summary.
The central government in Beijing took the lead in 2010 by mandating that households are allowed to buy only 1 extra home. The screw on this rule was further tightened in 2011 by restricting the number of homes local residents can own to 2, while non-Beijing registered families can only purchase 1 home after paying taxes for 5 consecutive years.
In the same year, the central government raised the minimum down-payment for a second home loan from 50% to 60% and introduced a pilot property taxes scheme in Shanghai and Chongqing. This property tax scheme is expected to spread to other cities.
Many cities across the country have also implemented some restriction or other on housing purchases. Specifically, Guangzhou and Shanghai limited the number of homes local residents can own to 2. From 2012, Guangzhou has also been more stringent in carrying out existing rules that prohibit foreigners from purchasing non-residential properties.
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Showing posts with label Cooling Measures. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cooling Measures. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Friday, January 4, 2013
The Pricing Impact of a Change in Down-payment Amount in Housing Loan
By SUSAN TEO
From an economic perspective, any change in credit conditions will have an impact on demand thus bringing about a change in market-clearing price and (or) sales volume. Down-payment forms an essential component in the financing of a property purchase. In the Singapore's context, for residential property purchases, down-payment is funded by cash and (or) Central Provident Fund balances. This implies that a raise in down-payment as a percentage of the purchase price [equivalent to a lower loan-to-value ratio (LVR)] will lead to, ceteris paribus, a decrease in demand for residential property. Intuitively, the decreased demand is spurred by the greater number of buyers exiting the market. Generally, for first-time buyers accumulating the savings needed for down-payment constitute a major hurdle in property purchases hence a lower LVR will deter this group of buyers from making purchases. Repeat buyers who wish to upgrade or purchase another property will be hesitant to do so thus depressing demand.

For simplicity, we omit the two extreme cases of a perfectly price elastic supply (PES= infinity) and a perfectly price inelastic supply (PES=0).

SI is the supply curve that is relatively price inelastic (PES < 1)
SE is the supply curve that is relatively price elastic (PES > 1)
Figure 1 shows that when down-payment rises, ceteris paribus
i) the demand curve for property shifts to the left from D0 to D1
ii) there is a decrease from the initial market-clearing price of $1000 psf and sales volume of 25000
iii) the magnitude of decrease in market-clearing price and sales volume is contingent on the price elasticity of supply
iv) when the supply curve is relatively price elastic, SE,the market-clearing price and sales volume decrease to $800and 20000, respectively.
v) when the supply curve is relatively price inelastic, SI,the market-clearing price and sales volume fall to $600 and 23000, respectively.
Hence we can conclude that if supply is relatively price inelastic, the decrease in market-clearing price is steeper, but the fall in sales volume will be smaller. In the short run, it is realistic to believe that the supply of housing is relatively price inelastic as property developers cannot quickly adjust supply in response to demand changes. For example, developers are unlikely to put off property launches that have been planned before the fall in demand. In contrast, in the long run, developers can reduce the construction of new property; consequently supply becomes more elastic.
Source: CPF, Singapore SIBOR Watch, The Straits Times
Based on then Minister of National Development, Mr Mah Bow Tan, in the Committee of Supply Debate speech delivered on 3 March 2011, the four rounds of cooling measures have proven effective in reining in prices. (See below two figures) "Resale price growth and transaction volumes have moderated. Quarter-on-Quarter growth in resale prices slowed from 4.0% in the second and third quarters of 2010 to 2.5 per cent in the last quarter. For 2011, month-on-month, resale price growth has slowed to 0.6 per cent in Jan and 0.7 per cent in Feb. The trend is still downwards. Likewise, quarterly resale volumes fell by 21 per cent to about 6,500 transactions in the last quarter of 2010, or about 2,200 transactions each month," Mr Mah said.

In addition, according to Ku Swee Yong, CEO of International Property Advisor Pte Ltd, in his evaluation of the first four rounds of cooling measures commented that the "The tightening of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio from 70 per cent to 60 per cent had the largest impact on market volume" (page 37). To counter the series of stringent measures, property developers have come up with various cashback schemes to woo buyers. Among which includes dishing out furniture vouchers and early birds discounts.
Read more articles at
PropertyBuyer.com.sg/articles
SingaporeHomeLoan.net/blog/
iCompareLoan.com/resources/category/faq/
References
1.Ku Swee Yong, Real Estate Riches: Understanding Singapore's Property Market in a Volatile Economy, Singapore: Marshall Cavendish Business, 2011, 37, Print
2. "35-year Limit Set on Home Loans", The Straits Times 6 Oct 2012, sec 1: 1, Print
3."my CPF - Buying a House. . . A Place to Call Your Own", Central Provident Fund Board, Web <http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/CPF/my-cpf/buy-house/BH5.htm>
4."Summary of Property Cooling Measures", Singapore SIBOR Watch, Web <http://singaporesiborwatch.com/singaporesibor-learning-centre/summary-of-property-cooling-measures-imposed-by-the-singapore-government/>
5. Speech by Minister for National Development, Mr Mah Bow Tan, at the Committee of Supply Debate on "Stability - Responding to extraordinary growth", 3 March 2011, Web <http://app.mnd.gov.sg/Newsroom/NewsPage.aspx?ID=2381&category=Parliamentary%20Speech&year=2011&RA1=&RA2=&RA3=> Images/Charts for Speech by Minister for National Development, Mr Mah Bow Tan, at the Committee of Supply Debate on "Stability - Responding to extraordinary growth", 3 March 2011, Web <http://www.mnd.gov.sg/BudgetDebate/bavr2011-photo01.html>
From an economic perspective, any change in credit conditions will have an impact on demand thus bringing about a change in market-clearing price and (or) sales volume. Down-payment forms an essential component in the financing of a property purchase. In the Singapore's context, for residential property purchases, down-payment is funded by cash and (or) Central Provident Fund balances. This implies that a raise in down-payment as a percentage of the purchase price [equivalent to a lower loan-to-value ratio (LVR)] will lead to, ceteris paribus, a decrease in demand for residential property. Intuitively, the decreased demand is spurred by the greater number of buyers exiting the market. Generally, for first-time buyers accumulating the savings needed for down-payment constitute a major hurdle in property purchases hence a lower LVR will deter this group of buyers from making purchases. Repeat buyers who wish to upgrade or purchase another property will be hesitant to do so thus depressing demand.
A Look at the Effect of a Change in Down-payment Percentage
Using a simple demand-and-supply analysis, we will illustrate the dynamics of an increase in the down-payment percentage. We assume the classic case of a downward-sloping demand curve and an upward-sloping supply curve. On the supply side, the key determinant of the magnitude of change in market-clearing price and sales volume is the price elasticity of supply. This parameter measures the relative responsiveness of quantity supplied due to a change in the price of the good itself, ceteris paribus.For simplicity, we omit the two extreme cases of a perfectly price elastic supply (PES= infinity) and a perfectly price inelastic supply (PES=0).
SI is the supply curve that is relatively price inelastic (PES < 1)
SE is the supply curve that is relatively price elastic (PES > 1)
Figure 1 shows that when down-payment rises, ceteris paribus
i) the demand curve for property shifts to the left from D0 to D1
ii) there is a decrease from the initial market-clearing price of $1000 psf and sales volume of 25000
iii) the magnitude of decrease in market-clearing price and sales volume is contingent on the price elasticity of supply
iv) when the supply curve is relatively price elastic, SE,the market-clearing price and sales volume decrease to $800and 20000, respectively.
v) when the supply curve is relatively price inelastic, SI,the market-clearing price and sales volume fall to $600 and 23000, respectively.
Hence we can conclude that if supply is relatively price inelastic, the decrease in market-clearing price is steeper, but the fall in sales volume will be smaller. In the short run, it is realistic to believe that the supply of housing is relatively price inelastic as property developers cannot quickly adjust supply in response to demand changes. For example, developers are unlikely to put off property launches that have been planned before the fall in demand. In contrast, in the long run, developers can reduce the construction of new property; consequently supply becomes more elastic.
In the Singapore's Market Context
Relating this economic analysis to the Singapore's residential property market, we do observe the Government implementing cooling measures aimed at increasing the down-payment percentage. Since Sept 2009, the Government has made six legislative attempts to stabilise soaring property prices, with the latest, on 6 October 2012, being the further decrease of the Loan-To-Value ratio (LTV) for longer term loan. (With the new regulation and the weak economic climate, you will want to optimise your financial resources when applying for new home loans or refinancing your current one. Do make use of the free mortgage advisory service at www.iCompareLoan.com to find the best home loan in town that will serve your needs.) Among the slew of measures, four specifically target an increase in the down-payment component.
Chart 1: Cooling Measures that Affect the Down-payment
Date
|
Policy Change
|
| 19 Feb 2010 | Lowering of Loan-To-Value ratio (LTV) from 90% to 80%. |
| 30 Aug 2010 | Increase in Minimum Cash Deposits from 5% to 10% and a Decrease in Loan-To-Value ratio (LVR) to 70% for Property Buyers with Outstanding Housing Loans. |
| 14 Jan 2011 | Further Lowering of Loan-To-Value ratio (LVR) to 60% for Property Buyers with Outstanding Housing Loans.For Non-Individuals Borrowers, Lowering of Loan-To-Value ratio (LVR) to 50%. |
| 6th Oct 2012 | For Loans Exceeding 30 Years or Which Extend Past the Age of 651) Further Lowering of Loan-To-Value ratio (LVR) to 60% for Property Buyers Taking their First Housing Loans.2) Further Lowering of Loan-To-Value ratio (LVR) to 40% for Property Buyers with Outstanding Housing Loans.For Non-Individuals Borrowers, Further Lowering of Loan-To-Value ratio (LVR) to 40%. |
Based on then Minister of National Development, Mr Mah Bow Tan, in the Committee of Supply Debate speech delivered on 3 March 2011, the four rounds of cooling measures have proven effective in reining in prices. (See below two figures) "Resale price growth and transaction volumes have moderated. Quarter-on-Quarter growth in resale prices slowed from 4.0% in the second and third quarters of 2010 to 2.5 per cent in the last quarter. For 2011, month-on-month, resale price growth has slowed to 0.6 per cent in Jan and 0.7 per cent in Feb. The trend is still downwards. Likewise, quarterly resale volumes fell by 21 per cent to about 6,500 transactions in the last quarter of 2010, or about 2,200 transactions each month," Mr Mah said.
In addition, according to Ku Swee Yong, CEO of International Property Advisor Pte Ltd, in his evaluation of the first four rounds of cooling measures commented that the "The tightening of the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio from 70 per cent to 60 per cent had the largest impact on market volume" (page 37). To counter the series of stringent measures, property developers have come up with various cashback schemes to woo buyers. Among which includes dishing out furniture vouchers and early birds discounts.
Read more articles at
PropertyBuyer.com.sg/articles
SingaporeHomeLoan.net/blog/
iCompareLoan.com/resources/category/faq/
References
1.Ku Swee Yong, Real Estate Riches: Understanding Singapore's Property Market in a Volatile Economy, Singapore: Marshall Cavendish Business, 2011, 37, Print
2. "35-year Limit Set on Home Loans", The Straits Times 6 Oct 2012, sec 1: 1, Print
3."my CPF - Buying a House. . . A Place to Call Your Own", Central Provident Fund Board, Web <http://mycpf.cpf.gov.sg/CPF/my-cpf/buy-house/BH5.htm>
4."Summary of Property Cooling Measures", Singapore SIBOR Watch, Web <http://singaporesiborwatch.com/singaporesibor-learning-centre/summary-of-property-cooling-measures-imposed-by-the-singapore-government/>
5. Speech by Minister for National Development, Mr Mah Bow Tan, at the Committee of Supply Debate on "Stability - Responding to extraordinary growth", 3 March 2011, Web <http://app.mnd.gov.sg/Newsroom/NewsPage.aspx?ID=2381&category=Parliamentary%20Speech&year=2011&RA1=&RA2=&RA3=> Images/Charts for Speech by Minister for National Development, Mr Mah Bow Tan, at the Committee of Supply Debate on "Stability - Responding to extraordinary growth", 3 March 2011, Web <http://www.mnd.gov.sg/BudgetDebate/bavr2011-photo01.html>
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