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Showing posts with label Property Valuation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Property Valuation. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 3, 2009

Population Swings and Your Property Prices in Singapore

Success is a thought process



TOTAL POPULATION

Singapore Citizens + PR + Expats (employment passes) + Working Permit

holders.

SINGAPORE RESIDENTS

Singapore Citizens + PR


SYPNOSIS

As you can see, there are only about 3.2m Singaporeans and the annual

growth rate last year was 1%. Most of this 1% growth, I would attribute it to

new births, with maybe a 20% of this 1%, or 0.2% coming from PR

converting to become Singapore Citizens.


The growth rate of Singapore citizens have been fairly stable at a low rate of

1%.


Last year, there were 4.8m of total population, a 5.5% growth rate over the

previous year.




By looking at the chart, you will see that years 1987 and 2003, total

population growth (In BLUE) was negative.




IN 1987 - PROPERTY PRICE CRASH?

In 1987, the total population drop reflects the exodus of working permit

holders and Expats on employment passes. Singaporeans and PR growth

slowed, but still in the positive ~1.5% range.


IN 2003 - PROPERTY PRICE CRASH?

In 2003, the total population drops, coupled with a drop of Singaporeans and

PR. Most Citizens usually stay put in Singapore. In 2003, it is suspected that

even PRs are leaving Singapore in droves coupled with Expats and working

permit holders leaving.


WHY IS THIS STATISTIC EVEN IMPORTANT?

I think it is important because from a historical standpoint, Foreigners who

come to our shores to work do not have strong emotional attachments to this

land. Many come for work or follow their spouses here. In the scenario of

reduction in jobs, many expats will be the 1st to leave the country. If they

leave, it represents an immediate vacation of the properties they used to

occupy.


From the data, it shows that PR while more likely to stay in Singapore are

not immune to leaving when push comes to shove.


MAGNITUDE

1.2m of the population are foreign, that means 1 in 4 person on the street is

foreign.

From a Property Demand stand-point, this is significant because we are

talking about a Foreign population of 1.2m people of which an estimated

400,000 are expats, some 800,000 are workers or various types.


For expats, if we assume 2 person per household, we are talking about

200,000 units in housing demand.

For the rest 800,000, an estimated 400,000 are domestic helpers (who

stayed with their employers), while the rest are lower educated workers

working factories, service outlets, etc.


These 400,000, assuming 3 person per household, will take up 133,333

units of housing, or in the form of room rentals (1 per room), HDB rentals,

lower end condominiums shared amongst several person.


Our Private property housing has been built with a view to catering to foreign

demand. The growth in Supply of housing has exceeded the 1.5% growth

rate of Singapore citizens and Singapore PRs in the past few years.


Therefore this makes the entire property market more volatile and

susceptible to price movements with the IN and OUT flow of foreign

population in Singapore.


MOST SINGAPOREANS OWN (Mortgage) their homes

Most Singaporeans own their homes. So the rental market is largely catered

to migrant and expat population. Sudden IN flows of foreign population

forces the Rental rates to go UP and an exodus leads to rental rates to go

DOWN.


Rental has a BIG and very direct correlation to the property prices, therefore

POPULATION SWINGS in the forms of Expats COMING and LEAVING the

country will subject first our rental prices to swing, followed closely by

property prices.


IN 2009???

In 2009, the total population has run up a lot while Singapore Citizens and

PRs have only grown at 1+%. Given that the foreign population in Singapore

now numbers 1.2 million, any exodus will immediately impact the rental

market as it is assumed that very few expats own the properties which they

stayed in and the rental market will impact the property prices.



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Saturday, September 6, 2008

Valuing A Property - A layman's approach

"Success in a thought process."

What explains the price differential between 2 adjacent properties? Often you will see 2 adjacent properties sometimes a big enough price gap to warrant a big WHY.


Say for example, Condo 1 is asking an average price of S$900 psf and Condo 2 is asking a S$1200 psf.

What could be the reason???

Here are some possible explanations: -

SIZE
1. Condo 1 offers bigger units and Condo 2 offers smaller units. Towards the pricier end of properties, affordability is an issue. For example: -
Condo1 unit sizes may be in the average of 1500 square feet (10.76 sq feet = 1 sq meter). That means that an average unit would cost around S$1.35m.
Condo2 unit sizes may be around 700 to 800 square feet. That means an average unit would cost S$960k.

AGE
2. If size is not an dissimilar, Condo 1 may be older than Condo 2. Newer units generally command a premium as their design tends to be more up to date with current trends. Over time, property value tends to become higher, therefore newer properties tend to have better finishing, technologies (intercom systems), lighting, marble floors, feature walls, large lobbies, Bigger and faster lifts, air-con lobbies, nicely manicured gardens, etc. You name it, they have it. You are paying for the luxurious lifestyle. Good marbles and feature walls can cost upwards of 30 to 100 dollars (per sq feet).

LOCATION
3. Even if a property is across 1 road, the feel and surrounding attributes may be totally different. In feng shui, the road cuts across the "chi" 气 of the area. That may also explain the price differences. An example of that is Garden Vista a 99 years development (by Far East) in Dunearn Road, the going rates in 2006 were $850 to $900 psf and in 2007 and 2008, Far East was asking $1350 psf onwards. But across the road/highway is Sherwood towers, it is going for $400-$700 psf tops (and it is either Free Hold or 999 years). Location effect, in this case, garden vista is "Bukit Timah" while Sherwood towers is "Beauty world" branded, but of course more factors are at play.

LAND ATTRIBUTES
4. Two developments side by side may have similar finishing, however one may have a stream or is hilly and the other is flat. If developed and planned nicely, the rolling and hilly terrain may enhance the feeling of space and conveys a sense of well-being. As a result, people may like it more and are happy to part with more of their hard-earned money.

DESIGN ATTRIBUTES
5. Not all developments are the same. Different design appeal to different people. As Singapore is generally land scarce, properties are becoming expensive. Older designs used to have balconies. As Singaporeans become more and more utilitarian, the balconies disappeared to become part of the living space. Hence those without Balconies are more highly valued. Of late, as more and more developments are built without Balconies, developments with Balconies are making a come-back due to demand from certain segment of the home buyers who cherished the balconies, they are priced at a premium.

6. Some designs are awkward, they deliberately squeeze out 4 rooms when it should only comfortably have only 3 rooms. There are several twists and turns, corridors are long and space is "wasted". This is because you cannot really put anything along the corridor. Therefore the place feels smaller than it actually is. Though this kind of design may find some fans, it is generally not well liked by the Space minded and bargain hunting Singaporean home buyer.

FENG SHUI
7. Feng Shui, an age old art of harmonious living. More and more people are subscribing to this school of thought. And Feng Shui plays a big part in the valuation of a property. Even if you do not believe in it, many others do. It will eventually affect the price of your property either positively or negatively.

CONNECTIVITY
8. Properties near to major roads, bus stations and train stations are generally valued more. There are about 750,000 cars in a population of 4.6m. About 1 in 6 people own a car. But other family members still need to go to work, go to school, go to buy stuff and run errants, so connectivity is still very important. Despite Singapore's small size and famed public transport system, some private residential areas are a bit off the beaten track. If they are near to public transportation nodes, they are generally of the 99 year lease hold type.

VICINITY
9. Most good properties have good connectivity, but also great vicinity. The locality is near the Sea, near a nice lake, the hills, the forest or near heavily forested areas with lots of shade and foliage. Bukit Timah is one such place, East Coast park, Katong, Siglap, Yio Chu Kang are other such areas.

SCHOOLS
10. In Singapore, most children of school going age (6 to 7 years old) will have to go to Primary school. Being the usual KIASU (a hokkien word to describe, "Afraid to lose out") Singaporean parents, most parents will try to get their children to the best Primary Schools. And in Singapore, priority is given to families living within 1 km of the primary school (subject to the family having stayed there 2 years prior to the registration exercise). With good Primary schools within 1 km, most properties within 1km of the school is highly sought after.

AMENITIES
11. Singaporeans hate to walk. For an average foreigner, it would seem surprising that Singaporeans generally do not have the same sense of distance compared to a foreigner. So there is a premium to be near to the super markets, wet markets, shops and shopping centers.

LAND TITLE
12. In Singapore, most people prefer Free Hold land followed by 999 years lease hold and the least liked is 99 years. For some people from Hong Kong or China for instance, they do not seem to understand what is the big deal about 99 years and Free Hold, because no bodies lives that long. But I tell you, in Singapore, most people prefer Free Hold and that is a fact. If they did not buy free hold properties, it is usually a matter of budget constraint.

13. There is also a difference between Free Hold Strata titled land and Free Hold land with individual title deeds. Though the difference is not always reflected in the price of a property. Free Hold Land has more intrinsic value generally as it cannot be over-written by a majority vote. Strata titled land with properties on it, means that each property owner owns a "share" of the land that their property sits on. And older properties over 20 years old have Strata title laws that governs it, as long as 80% or more vote to demolish or sell the property, even the dissenting 20% of property owner will have to agree. In other words, you have no control over your home, even if you do NOT want to sell it, you may be force to sell it if the majority opts to sell or re-develop it.

FACILITIES AND SIZE OF THE DEVELOPMENT
14. A development needs to be of a certain size in land area in order to economically provide all the facilities. A full facility condominium (Condo) will have facilities such as: -
Swimming pool
Jacuzi pool
Gymnasium
Sauna room
tennis court
exercise bay
children playground
function room
Barbeque pits
Squash court (most condos do not provide this now)

The facilities differential will be create a price differential in 2 different developments.


LAND VALUE VERSUS PROPERTY VALUE
15. Property and buildings depreciate. Fittings degenerate, paints peel. The once sought after property is no longer deemed HOT. However, in land scarce Singapore with an expansive immigration policy, more population and lesser and lesser land is a recipe for higher land prices. Land appreciate, buildings depreciate.

16. Singapore is a country where the government likes to micro manage. Some call it good governance, others call it, "they plug every loop hole". So developers cannot buy large tracks of land and keep it till it appreciate. This is because the Government levies development charge and penalties on delay of building the "proposed" building and/or amenities. So that is out of the question.

However, there are many good gems out there that are DIRTY and OLD and FORGOTTEN. Many old buildings that sit on rather good land asking very reasonable prices.

Why is there such a price differential given that those are gems???

This is because buying and staying in a property is an emotional process. Many gems are over-looked because they are
simply "Dirty and NOT polished". It's definitely a different decision altogether. In this case, this property may be an
investment gem, but not a lifestyle gem, unless you can do some modifications work to it.


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