Contributed by: www.PropertyBUYER.com.sg
In china, most residential property comes with leases of 70 years. Let's take a look at the valuation dynamics of 99 years lease-hold properties in Singapore.
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According to SLA’s leasehold land premium calculation and valuation of 99 years lease hold land.
Singapore SLA 99 lease hold valuation
(Adapted from SLA’s Differential Premium valuation calculation)
SLA's valautions for 99 year leasehold properties are a structured way in which to calculate the depreciation of an existing 99 years lease-hold property which is being proposed for upgrade, re-build, renewal or re-zoning. This nonetheless forms a basis of how a 99 year leasehold property in Singapore is valued across the board if you consider that Singapore Land Authority is the Authority in these matters.
Of course, how the property is valued and what price it is being sold for may differ. SLA's valuations of such properties do not take into account the various differences in the conditions of the properties.
Condition of 20 years and 30 years buildings (Free hold and 99 years leasehold)
The conditions of 20 year to 30 years buildings are already quite poor. Most will have issues such as leaking from pipes, minor cracks, electrical systems malfunctioning and possibly other structural issues. Tenants always like new properties with new amenities. Therefore as properties age, the rental value deteriorate. And hence the price of these properties trade at a discount to other properties.
Double Bay Residences in Simei Singapore
A building consists of 2 major components
· Building cost (plus other building related costs) - ~$350
· Land cost - ~$296
Land cost for Double Bay residences - Simei Singapore = $296 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr)
(Source: Straits times - http://www.asiaone.com/Business/Story/A1Story20080724-78562.html)
“'A PARTNERSHIP between UOL Group and Kheng Leong – both companies linked to banker Wee Cho Yaw – emerged as the top bidder for a residential site at Simei Street 4 at the close of the tender yesterday....
The two companies’ bid, which was the highest of three bids, came to $236.1 million, or some $296 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr).Right now, developers can bid up to about $200-250 per square foot of potential gross floor area at most for suburban condo sites, which translates to breakeven costs of $650-700 psf. However, if construction costs continue to go up and selling prices continue to drop, there's not much else you can do except to lower your land bids. The question is what is the government's threshold for pain?' a seasoned developer said.” (http://www.asiaone.com/Business/Story/A1Story20080724-78562.html, By Kalpana Rashiwala
Building cost for Double Bay residences - Simei Singapore
According to a Straits times report published in July 2008, construction costs for medium-quality condominiums are in the $260 psf of GFA to $320 psf of GFA in Q1, 2008 and in Q2, it has increased from $280 to $350 psf of GFA range. This is in line with analysts expectations of a breakeven cost of $650 to $700 psf ppr.
"Construction cost consultancy Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB). said: 'Construction prices for medium-quality condominiums indicatively range from $260 psf of GFA to $320 psf of GFA in Q1 2008, and prices have risen further to $280 to $350 psf of GFA for Q2 2008,' it said. 'High demand and competition for limited resources, the lack of tendering capacity among contractors, sub-contractors and suppliers, and volatile commodity prices have contributed significantly to building tender price escalation,' the firm added." (Source: Straits times, http://www.asiaone.com/Business/Story/A1Story20080724-78562.html)
Assumptions For Depreciation of Double Bay Residences in Singapore: -
· Depreciate the building more slowly with the 1st 10 years depreciating less and gradually more in the second 10 years and so on.
· Depreciate land more slowly in the earlier years and then depreciate faster in the later years.
This is just an illustration and represents our views only, buyers please exercise your own judgement.
Double Bay residences Simei Singapore
In the absence of external factors, on an intrinsic value basis, double bay residences valuation could continue to drop in the years ahead. Of course, the actual prices does not necessarily have to follow this pattern if there are external factors at play.
What external factors could affect Double Bay residences value?
Developments, lifestyle, Population, etc.
Positive external factors could also be in the form of Free Hold land value in the vicinity of double bay leading to the base value of the land increasing. For Double bay, the land cost is $296 per square feet per plot ratio, if free hold land price has increased dramatically in the same area to $500 psf ppr 10 years later. Then by inference, the remainder 89 years of the lease of a 99 years lease hold property land will also increase in value. This increase in the land value could either partially offset the depreciation in the building value or completely offset it and increase in selling prices.
Sentiments
Sentiments drive up prices, leading to price distortions and anomalies. This factor is very pertinent in 99 years lease-hold investing. Developers and Singapore property agents alike have very compelling arguments promoting the sale of 99 years lease-hold properties. If enough people believe in it, the price gap will narrow between a 99 years leasehold property and a free hold property.
Government policies and changes in Differential premium
Government policies could impact the base value of future 99 years lease-hold land and consequently affect the remainder lease of any lease-hold land.
So for double bay residences in Simei Singapore, the best form of increase in value stems mostly from increase in land prices. As far as en-bloc potential, it is almost NIL if the price increase in Free Hold land is not significant and the differential premium (by SLA), is not reduced from 75% to a lower figure.
Construction cost and raw materials
If construction costs go up, a similar or new replacement property would likely be more expensive, therefore any existing buildings still in fairly good condition will therefore fetch better prices. However, if the cost of construction go down, then it would be cheaper to build more units onto the market depressing (or moderating the increase of) the prices of existing units.
So property investors can still make money from any swing up in sentiment. But if fundamentals remained unchanged, it will be more a matter of the greater fool theory.
What lessons could we learn from Double Bay Residences - Simei Singapore?
In the case of Double Bay residences in Simei Singapore, the building cost is high. And buildings do depreciate fairly quickly. Usually, buildings after 30 years would be in fairly bad shape despite whether it is safe to stay in. These properties would be practically undesirable as rental properties.
Given that the total base value of this property is 54% of the total cost of the property and that buildings depreciate faster than 99 lease hold land. This property will likely lose value quickly. The land value of this property would also along with time, lose it's value.
So Should we buy more expensive properties?
Generally yes, if you can afford it. But buy value, not price!!!
Buying a Singapore property is a personal choice as much as it is a matter of affordability. When the government made credit easily available by lowering the cash downpayment requirement, the end result is that people will have to pay higher prices for smaller properties. So there really is not much choice if affordability is an issue and you will most likely end up with smaller units. That also mean that you will not get a very good deal as small units trade at a more expensive price.
For Example, if we look at other places where the land could be $1000 psf ppr (Free Hold) and we add a luxuriously fitted building at $500 psf ppr. The building is only 33% of the total value. The total psf ppr price would then be $1500.
Assume that with a mark up, you buy it at $2000 psf ppr. In this case, the building portion of the value will continue to depreciate, while the Free hold land value tends to increase in line with inflation and/or population growth. You could be paying more, but you are sitting on valuable land which can potentially more than offset any reduction in building prices.
Expensive land stays expensive or it could even become more expensive.
And the more expensive the land, the more incentive it is to build luxuriously and beautifully in order to optimize usage in prime land. With more and more such buildings in any particular area, the vibrancy will increase, leading to better overall facilities and amenities. This creates a positive reinforcing cycle which supports the property values. In the case of building cost to land cost ratio, as long as it can be built luxuriously enough with good utility, as a rule of thumb, the lower the ratio, the better it is in keeping the value of the property as a large part in the value is vested in the land itself, while the building itself depreciates.
You can contact a Singapore mortgage consultant to evaluate home loan affordability.
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